金融创新如何缓解信任品市场失灵?——中国食品安全责任强制保险的自然实验

信任品市场(如食品、医药等)存在的问题一直困扰着中国和世界很多国家。关于产品和服务质量的信息不对称(道德风险和逆向选择)会导致信任品市场失灵。缓解信任品市场失灵,一种常见的解决方案是政府监管;而经济学家认为更加基于市场的解决方案(例如强制责任保险等金融创新)可能更为有效。在理论上,强制责任保险有两种相反的效应:保险公司的监督减少了道德风险 vs. 保险加剧了企业的道德风险,但一直亟待实证检验。幸运的是,中国食品安全责任强制保险的改革实验走在了世界的前列。本文利用了中国在不同地区、不同时间推行的这个自然实验,通过双重差分的方法识别出责任保险对于信任品市场的因果效应。本文的研究发现,强制责任保险能显著降低食品安全事故发生概率。这表明政府强制推行的金融创新可以成为信任品市场失灵的一种有效的替代性解决方案。     

The economics and geography of regional airline services in six countries

Do the determinants of service and pricing on “regional” routes – linking towns and smaller cities to main trunk routes and/or to each other – differ from the established results from the literature? We study all flights (about 3000) on all regional routes (about 250) with scheduled airline service from one of about 130 regional towns or cities, in regional airline markets in six countries: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and a sample of three U.S. states which closely resemble the other regions studied. For each flight we have observations on up to five prices offered at different times before flight date. We also have equipment type and social-economic data. Overall, our results give qualified support to the standard gravity model of the extent of service between city pairs, though with two interesting differences: operators on regional routes have greater flexibility in the size of aircraft they can deploy, which results in a finer-grained variability of service offerings and, the presence of competition on regional routes has a large effect on the total supply of seats. We are able to successfully estimate a well-specified airfare model, which shows strong effects of competition on prices, quite substantial intertemporal price discrimination, and interesting differences between regional and main trunk route pricing.     

A new hub and spoke system proposal: A case study for Turkey's aviation industry

In this paper, we are proposing a multi-objective mathematical model for the selection of a newly constructed hub and spoke system. The objectives of this model are maximizing aircraft utilization and revenue whilst reducing the commercially infeasible network detour factor. The sensitivity analysis of the model is tackled using weights related to the objectives as well as the network detour factor. The number of available aircraft and the range that an aircraft can reach are also considered in this model. Since Istanbul has already got a hub and spoke system with busy airports on both sides of the city, the model is applied to three other major cities of Turkey, Ankara, Antalya, and Izmir. The test data consists of over 90 cities in Europe and in the Middle East. The data includes unit passenger revenues and operating costs for the segments, distances between cities and hubs, expected load factors and flying times of segments. The scenarios are tested under specific expectations of airline network experts and the results are visualized by using Pareto front graphs. Compared to other candidates, Antalya stands out as a good choice for a new hub and spoke system in Turkey. The results of this model could be helpful for airlines and other airports in Turkey in order to identify their potential and competitive position in relation to their counterparts.     

The hybrid tourist

Inspired by the recent emergence of the hybrid consumer in the marketing literature, the present article defines hybrid tourists and assesses empirical evidence of their existence. Results indicate that hybrid tourists—tourists whose segment membership for the next trip cannot be predicted from their segment membership of their last trip—are the norm, rather than the exception. Only one quarter of tourists remain in the same motivation segment across more than one trip. Results are similar for expenditure segments. Tourist hybridity exists both with respect to travel motivations and expenditure. Personal characteristics predict hybridity. New approaches of market segmentation are needed to cater for the hybrid tourist.     

IS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR PRIVATE R&D ALWAYS JUSTIFIED? A DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LITERATURE ON GROWTH

Many economists have long held that market failures create a gap between social and private returns to research and development (R&D), thereby limiting private incentives to invest in R&D. However, this common belief that firms significantly underinvest in R&D is increasingly being challenged, leading the rationale behind public support for private R&D to be questioned. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the perspectives of two sources: the theoretical literature on endogenous growth, and its recent developments in integrating a geographical dimension, and the empirical literature that measures the social returns to R&D in relation to the private returns. Ultimately, we are able to clearly distinguish among different types of market failures and compare their relative impact on the gap between the private and social returns to R&D. Two main conclusions are reached. First, systematic firm underinvestment in R&D is not demonstrated. Second, even though instances of underinvestment do occur, they are mainly explained by surplus appropriability problems rather than by knowledge externalities. This suggests the need for a new policy mix that employs more demand‐oriented instruments and is more concentrated on identifying efficient allocations among activities rather than merely increasing global private R&D investment.     

Optimal order display in limit order markets with liquidity competition

Order display is associated with benefits and costs. Benefits arise from increased execution-priority, while costs are due to adverse market impact. We analyze a structural model of optimal order placement that captures trade-off between the costs and benefits of order display. For a benchmark model of pure liquidity competition, we give a closed-form solution for optimal display sizes. We show that competition in liquidity supply incentivizes the use of hidden orders to prevent losses due to over-bidding. Thus, because aggressive liquidity competition is more prevalent in liquid stocks, our model predicts that the proportion of hidden liquidity is higher in liquid markets. Our theoretical considerations ares supported by an empirical analysis using high-frequency order-message data from NASDAQ. We find that there are no benefits in hiding orders in il-liquid stocks, whereas the performance gains can be significant in liquid stocks.     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.     

Market structure and rating strategies in credit rating markets – A dynamic model with matching of heterogeneous bond issuers and rating agencies

This paper investigates the impact of rating agencies in a market with asymmetric information. In particular, the role of credit rating agencies as an intermediary between investors and bond issuers is discussed. We model this setting in a dynamic framework in which both rating agencies and bond issuers are of heterogeneous quality. Rating agencies can apply costly research technology to reveal the fundamental nature of bond issuers and engage in rating smoothing. We show that rating smoothing can compensate for low research quality, even though it is accompanied by a quality deterioration in the rating market and market clustering. Moreover, low-quality bond issuers have a general tendency to match with low-quality rating agencies. If investors place a strong emphasis on the reputation of rating agencies, rating markets also tend to be strongly clustered.     

The securitization of gold and its potential impact on gold stocks

We study the market impact of a very successful financial innovation – the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD). GLD holds physical gold, and provides traders with a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to gold. We find that after the introduction of GLD, the liquidity of gold company stocks declined, and their adverse-selection risk increased. Over the two-month period after GLD’s introduction, the stocks’ relative effective bid-ask spreads increased by over 15%, while their adverse-selection cost, as measured by the price impact of trades, went up by more than 30%. Gold stocks also experienced significant negative abnormal returns (−12% on average) in the month after GLD started trading. Our findings suggest that GLD attracted traders, especially uninformed traders, away from gold company stocks, and that the resulting negative demand shocks and decrease in the stocks’ liquidity caused their prices to decline. Our results show that existing securities can be seriously adversely affected when a new security enters the market.     

On the efficiency of intra-industry information transfers: The dilution of the overreaction anomaly

We revisit the stock market anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (2008) and show that the apparent mispricing of information transfers has decayed over time, as the US markets experienced rapid improvements in the efficiency of the underlying price formation processes. Utilizing recent advancements in market microstructure research to estimate firm-specific proxies for market efficiency, we demonstrate that the existence of the overreaction anomaly (where stock prices of late announcers in response to the earnings reported by early announcers in the same industry are negatively related to subsequent price responses of late announcers to their own earnings reports) is specific to an earlier sample period and results from the inefficient incorporation of information into prices, largely attributable to an environment with high barriers to arbitrage. Our results indicate that the pricing efficiency of intra-industry information transfers has increased in the recent years of increased liquidity and markedly higher trading activity.